The tsunami and nuclear crisis in Japan may provide some opportunity for few Indian companies like pharmaceutical and steel. The crisis may also affect some upcoming as well as existing nuclear power plants in India, in terms of safety and security

Yogesh Sapkale

Japan is still fighting hard to contain the damage caused by the earthquake and subsequent tsunami. On Wednesday morning, there was a second fire at the number four reactor at Daiichi plant. The biggest uncertainty at present is whether Japan would be able to safely shutdown the nuclear reactors or not. The exact magnitude and duration of economic problems in Japan is hard to estimate at present due to the evolving situation with the nuclear reactors and the unclear future of nuclear power sector in general.

Although it is too early to predict, the re-building of damaged areas and required healthcare facilities in Japan may provide some opportunity for Indian companies, mainly pharmaceutical and steel companies.

Japan is the second largest market for pharmaceutical companies after the US. The Japanese generic market is expected to grow at about 9%-13% to $8-$11 billion, with the government target of 32% generic prescription by 2012. After the recent earthquake and tsunami, Japan is going to witness a rise in health problems related to gastro-intestinal, post-traumatic care and infections.

"Given their established presence, Ranbaxy Laboratories and Lupin are expected to be the major winners who can tap the Japanese opportunity. The increasing healthcare demand after the Japanese crisis would lead to a favourable opportunity for Lupin as the demand for anti-inflammatory (AI), neuro-psychiatric treatment and gastrointestinal (GI) drugs would see a rise," said Sharekhan Ltd, in a research note.

India has been a major supplier of iron ore to Japan. However, in recent years, many Japanese companies have set up joint ventures with Indian steel makers. During 2010, JFE Steel bought about 15% stake in JSW Steel, India's largest private steel maker for $1 billion. Sumitomo also bought 40% stake in Bhushan Steel's project in West Bengal, while Nippon Steel formed a joint venture with Tata Steel to make auto grade steel in India. Kobe Steel, which already has an existing agreement with state-run Steel Authority of India (SAIL), signed an umbrella agreement with Essar Steel.

Those Japanese steel producers who have a joint venture or plant in other countries are likely to have an upper hand while catering to local demand, as almost all companies from the earthquake-affected areas have stopped production owing to the tsunami and the disruption of power supply.

While the overseas investments from Japan are expected to be lower in the near term, there are chances of more outflows over a longer term. "In the near term, Japanese companies are likely to delay overseas direct investment (ODI) plans. However, longer term, we could see greater demand from Japanese companies to diversify production bases in geologically more stable countries," said Citigroup, in a report.

Japan accounted for around $3.7 billion, or less than 2% of India's total exports of $175 billion during 2009-10. Over the past ten years, foreign direct investment (FDI) from Japan has been around 4% of the total FDI inflows in India.

Earlier in February, both the countries signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), which will eliminate tariffs on 94% of bilaterally traded goods in the next 10 years. Following the FTA, it was expected to boost bilateral trade between Japan and India. The temporary halt in Japan's export to other countries may also provide an opportunity to other countries. However, India may not be a beneficiary.

According to Citigroup, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand look relatively more vulnerable to a sharper slowdown in exports to Japan. "However, slower exports to Japan could be offset by stronger exports for product segments where Asian countries compete directly with Japan. Korea and Taiwan have export structures most similar to Japan," the report added.

The earthquake-related economic and fiscal impact on Japan is significant, but, given the unfolding situation, Standard & Poor's (S&P) Ratings Services said it believes it is too early to judge the implications for the unsolicited sovereign credit rating, which currently stands at AA- with stable outlook.

"The key factors determining the future trajectory of the sovereign credit rating on Japan include the overall macroeconomic impact of the earthquake, the pace and duration of reconstruction, and the impact on fiscal deficit," said S&P's credit analyst Takahira Ogawa. "In addition, we need to assess the government's ability to pursue its economic and fiscal reform agenda once reconstruction is well underway."

According to a report from Citigroup, near term economic damage in Japan is likely to give way to a reconstruction boost in the second half of 2011. "The boost from Japan's reconstruction in 2H2011 could offset 1H economic weakness, boosting overall FY2011 growth by +0.2 point to 2.1%," the report said.

The total cost of the reconstruction and recovery programme in Japan is still unclear. It's likely, however, to be significantly higher than that in the aftermath of the Kobe earthquake in 1995. The Kobe disaster cost Japan $159 billion (about 16.3 trillion yen) over 1995-2000. The costs are again likely to be spread out over several years and funded from a number of sources, S&P said.

Following the Kobe earthquake, Japanese imports from Asia only slowed for about six months before rebounding, and Japan's share in Asia's exports has fallen significantly since then to a 7.3% share in 2010 from 12.3% in 1995. The slowdown in Japan's imports post-Kobe was more pronounced in industrial materials and consumer goods, while capital equipment imports posted a strong rebound. Indonesia and India also have a large share of industrial material exports to Japan, but exports matter less to these domestic-driven economies, Citigroup said.

"Given the sheer magnitude of the current disaster, the rating on Japan could be affected if the debt burden were to increase materially above our pre-earthquake expectations, due to a significant economic impact and reconstruction costs," Mr Ogawa added.

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