Friday’s Earnings Preview: BHEL, Biocon, CESC, HPCL, Jaiprakash, Jet, Allahabad Bank  

July 23, 2010

BHEL

Net sales: Rs65.75 billion - Rs72.76 billion
Net profit: Rs5.47 billion - Rs7.16 billion

A strong execution growth driven by order backlog can be expected. Margins should rise driven by operating leverage. Its margins in 1QFY10 were hit by supply of gas turbines and high-cost inventory. Watch for comments about expected orders from its JVs with various SEBs for the supply of super-critical BTG.

Biocon

Net sales: Rs5.90 billion - Rs6.50 billion
Net profit: Rs698 million - Rs819 million

Watch for traction in its insulin business, comments about its contract research business, and contribution from immunosuppressant API supplies (this should increase). German subsidiary (AxiCorp) should do well. Margins may contract y-o-y due to scale-up of domestic formulations business, increase in R&D expenses and rupee appreciation, but could be higher q-o-q. Technology licensing income could be in the $4-million range.

CESC

Net sales: Rs8.25 billion - Rs9.64 billion
Net profit: Rs1.09 billion - Rs1.24 billion

Dependence on purchased power should be lower with the 250MW Budge Budge expansion, which should also add to earnings. Progress on the Haldia power project in terms of land acquisition and financial closure, progress on its Chandrapur power project, and lower retail losses (Spencer) can be expected.

HPCL

Net sales: Rs203.9 billion - Rs322.11 billion

Comments about how much under-recovery OMCs will bear and about GRMs - should be in the $1-$2 range. Note that profit estimates will vary widely for this company because of the way each broker counts under-recovery sharing.

Jaiprakash Associates

Net sales: Rs21.17 billion - Rs29.98 billion
Net profit: Rs1.22 billion - Rs2.64 billion

Cement volumes are expected to compensate for weak realisations. Construction revenues should be strong. The progress on its proposed entry into fertilisers through subsidiary, Jaypee Fertilizers & Industries will be watched.

Comments about other subsidiaries Jaypee Infratech (83% stake by JPA, Yamuna Expressway project) and Jaiprakash Power Ventures (JPVL), an 88% subsidiary of JPA will be of interest.

Jet Airways

Net sales: Rs23.71 billion - Rs31.5 billion

Comments about disruption due to the Iceland volcano eruption and QIP will be watched.

Allahabad Bank

Net profit: Rs2.3 billion - Rs2.7 billion
Watch for treasury gains, NPA provisions. — Munira Dongre